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Soundwave said:

In Japan the Wii U should do well, they don't have Microsoft to worry about, they have 2 of the bigger third party franchises basically exclusive (though the DS/3DS seem to get the "main" Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest games while the Wii/Wii U have settled for the side versions ... DQIX is 4 million seller, DQX is probably going to be a 500k seller, so big difference).

Also Japan doesn't care as much about high end graphics, they have a full year head start over Sony.

The system should do well. The only big concern I see is that post-January lineup for Japan does not look very good.
DQX is OK, but being a MMORPG really limits its appeal, and Pikmin was never a big seller in Japan.

They could really use a Mario Kart for next March-April, but it probably won't be ready until fall at the earliest.

Wii Fit may be one of those things that people have had their fill of, like Nintendogs and Brain Training declining massively on the 3DS. 

So that's worrisome they need something stronger from Jan-June next year. 

EDIT: My memory is a bit hazy but I remember the N64 having a huge launch in Japan, like close to 500k sold, but the system dropped like a rock after that with no games but Super Mario 64/Pilotwings/and a Mah Jong game for a long time. 

Pikemen sold 560,000 that pretty good for Japan that is consider good.



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