HD adoption was expected to reach 50% of households in 2010; this projection was made off of the (amazingly foolish) assumption that households' spending habits would follow the drunken sailor approach that the housing bubble and easy to access credit created. A large portion of these upgrades are more movements towards large flat pannel displays and not towards high definition signals.
Whether Sony and Microsoft promise you that their consoles will last 10 years or not, by the end of 2011 all three console manufacturers will have released their next generation system. All three systems will support high definition, and will have a blu-laser based disc format. The diminishing returns from realitime 3D graphics technology will mean that the differences between a system that costs $150 to manufacture and $900 to manufacture will be (fairly) minimal so all consoles will be at (roughly) the same performance level.
