| Pineapple said: How did you guys make your predictions? |
Looking at the sales performances over Q1-3 and in October I made the assumptions that PS3 and X360 would be down but a little less than Q1-3 would suggest. I though Wii would at least be down at least as much as Q1-3 or a little worse. Vita would continue it's low trend and not magically explode, typically the hardcore PSP and PS3 have never shown as much of a jump during the holidays as the casual Wii and 3DS. IMO you are right that 3DS and Vita pretty much are the DS and PSP audiences. For 3DS I pretty much entered the same numbers as it did in 2011. The lack of compelling software is seemingly killing this assumption. Now it's time to construct a first trend from the end of October onward.
Then there's a little reshuffling of weeks due to the big software releases or lack thereof such as AC, COD, Halo, Animal Crossing (Japan), Paper Mario (Japan). Also Christmass falls on a different week having an effect on week 9 and especially 10. I also made a regional breakdown as say PSP was much stronger than Vita in Japan.
Next I look at graphs and percentages to see if it all makes sense based on historical trends. Lastly there's some shaving here and there if I think the Total sales are still too high/low. In previous years I also thought about whether I thought VGChartz was over or undertracking a platform in October, but I hadn't been following sales much all year and had less time to think about my predictions.
Before adjustments throw off the October numbers this method has mostly worked in previous years. Right now I'm hoping Vita can be adjusted downward again. Don't know if NPD had something to say on the matter. Vita is vastly outperforming my predictions in the US.
