So I take it WiiU does better than PS360 did? That's something at least. Wii massive start was unparalleled though, I don't see anything beating that anytime soon.
I'll answer the poll with 'Maybe'. They could make it, but then it will be barely. I think the WiiU will do just under that. Being so close to Wii's first year sales seems unlikely. I do think however that the WiiU will be able to sell more consistently and have better years in the second half of it's life than Wii did if Nintendo (and third parties) supports it better.