ninetailschris on 07 December 2012
DanneSandin said:
Mind posting that list?! :D |
The Pachter Predictions: Right or Wrong?
Kinect and Move:
Feb 2010: “Project Natal” (Kinect) will cost $50. “Very surprised if it’s more than $79,” “hard to envision” at $150.
Wrong: it was $150.
Feb 2010: Natal will outsell Sony’s “Arc” (PS Move) 5 to 1.
Correct: based on how bundles of the two systems sold.
Miscellaneous
Oct. 2008: Pachter rates EA a “strong buy,” but does say management is doing a poor job.
November 2008: Assassin’s Creed 2 will be set in the 17th Century.
Wrong by 200 years; it was in the 15 Century
Dec 2008: Says core gamers will keep buying games in same numbers, “have no clue we are in a recession.”
Unclear, since even though the game industry was hit by the recession, I can’t find figures specific to core gamer purchases.
March 2009: This is the “last generation of consoles.” There will be no new consoles ever (or at least for a very long time) from Microsoft and Sony, though Nintendo may put out a Wii HD with more storage.
Wrong: Nintendo skipped the Wii HD and went straight to a new, more powerful console with a new control system, known as the Wii U, and even though Pachter denies it’s a next-gen console, it’s certainly not just a Wii HD. Meanwhile, Microsoft and Sony are reportedly both working on new consoles that are expected to launch in 2013 or 2014.
Subscription Fees:
Oct 2009: Xbox Live to possibly double in cost in next few years.
Unknown: The advantage of saying up to a certain amount is, if it’s less, you still can claim you’re right. So the $10 yearly raise in 2010 means Pachter was right in saying the price would go up. And since he gave himself “a few years,’ it could go up again, although the $100 he suggested still seems far off.
Sept. 2010: Predicts Microsoft will soon introduce a $100 “platinum” Xbox live membership
Wrong: We’re still waiting on that.
Jul 2010: Activision will find way to charge for Call of Duty online play
Price Cuts:
July 2007: 360 Elite will drop from $479 to $399.
Partially Correct: In August 2007, Elite dropped to $449. But it didn’t reach $400 until around a year after that.
Jan 2009: Predicts PS3 price drop in April; 80 GB PS3 will go from $399 to $299.
Jun 2010: No price cut coming for PS3.
Correct.
Oct. 2010: 360 bundled with Kinect will drop by up to $50 early in 2011
Probably Correct: You know what, it’s really hard to figure out price cuts via Google. But you can get a Kinect bundle for Pachter’s predicted price of $300 now, so my best guess is he was right.
Software Sales:
Nov 2007: Guitar Hero III will generate half billion in fiscal year
Mar 2008: Pachter predicts GTA4 will sell well
Correct, I assume. This one is so obvious I’m not even research it.
Jul 2009: Take 2 will “dominate” 2010.
Grand Theft Auto 5:
March 2009: Next Grand Theft Auto game will come out in 2010, outsell GTA:IV.
Jul 2009: Next GTA game to come out by 2011.
Dec 2010: Next GTA game to come out by 2012.
Wrong: In late November, 2011 Rockstar announced GTA:V was in “full development,” but as of the fall of 2012 they still haven't announced a release date.
The PS3/360 Race:
Jan 2009: PS3 won’t catch up to 360 in U.S. until 2014.
He usually right with predictions a idiot could make but.... Big ones are usual misses.
"Excuse me sir, I see you have a weapon. Why don't you put it down and let's settle this like gentlemen" ~ max
