How many 10 Million sellers will the Wii U have?

[Gamerace]

Veknoid_Outcast said:

Gamerace said:

Veknoid_Outcast said:

Gamerace said:
[...]

Thirty million units seems so low to me...why so little do you think? Just because of tablets and things like Ouya?

Personally, I'd be shocked if it sold fewer than 50 million lifetime. But I'm interested to read your thinking on this.

The Wiimote was something both A) new and exciting and B) immediately understandable to all people, gamers or not.

The gamepad is neither new and exciting (2nd touch screen is 8 years old now) and with a return to dual analog, the controller is not immediately understandable, despite having a limited touchscreen.

Furthermore, Wii's audience has largely moved to Kinect or moreover tablets.   To go from Wiimote to kinect to gamepad is completely illogical - if that's your idea of gaming then the dual analog, gamepad is a dinosaur.   However the hundreds of millions using smartphone and tablets for gaming are the bigger concern.

33% of all smartphone use and 65% of all tablet use is gaming.  When you think about it, that's an immense amount.  That's a higher percentage of time than my Wii gets (thanks to Netflix).  Tablets are primarily gaming systems and they outsell home consoles easily.   This is largely WiiU's audience now playing very simple games like Angry Birds, Fruit Ninja and such which used to play Wii Sports and Mario Kart.  Plus they are paying $0-$15 for a game.   Are they now going to go back to paying $60?   It's possible, but the game has to be a lot more enticing than what we're currently seeing on WiiU.

On the other end of the spectrum WiiU doesn't offer nearly enough to convince core gamers to buy it and buy games for it instead of just sticking to their existing HD system.  Plus we know the next gen systems for MS and Sony are on the horizon so most will wait to see what they offer.

From what we're seen so far, PS4 will still largely target the core - a losing strategy IMO - however MS is going to be very, very aggressive about casuals (and core).  A much enhanced Kinect along with halograms or other virtual reality tricks will make the Nextbox the most hyped gaming system since Wii.  IF those rumours and leaks have merit.  If MS can deliver a Wii Sports like killer game.  I'm not convinced MS has the DNA but they have had a couple solid years with Kinect to learn the ropes.  I don't think they'll totally drop the ball either.

Add in wildcards like Wikipad, Ouya, Oculus Rift and Steambox and WiiU is facing a degree of competition for both the core and casual that Wii never had.

Nintendo abandoned the dual screen idea for Wii and resurrecting it 6 years later doesn't make it more relevant.  In many ways it's seems primative compared to the touchscreen devices we already all own.   It is somewhat novel and I'm sure fun.  But so is Angry Birds.   WiiU fails to create a compelling reason to own it for most people.   Especially if you already own a Wii with NSMBWii, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, etc.  The WiiU versions don't look to add enough to justify a new console and new game purchase for casual gamers.   If WiiU had launched in 2010, it would have benefitted more from the uniqueness of the controller (then) and the slip-over enthusiasm from the Wii.   But the Wii's shine started ebbing in 2009 and by 2012 there's little left over.

So this leaves the Nintendo core, enthusiast gamers who buy all consoles and whatever remains of Wii spillover.   I give WiiU the same sales as GC for the former and an extra 20m for the latter - minus 10m as I expect the home console market as a whole to shrink massively.   WiiU will also have all the challenges Wii and Nintendo always face (poor 3rd party support, sopratic game release, Nintendo's split attention between core/casual) but also the perks (Nintendo IPs and outstanding quality games)

30m is not a failure for Nintendo, especially because every WiiU + game sold is a profit, but it's no Wii success.   It will be disappointing but good enough considering the market shrinkage and competition.  It also allows Nintendo to launch yet another system in 4-5 years that will out-perform and out-innovate whatever MS/Sony had launched just 2-3 years earlier.

Thank you for responding to my question, Gamerace.

You speak the truth about the Wii remote: it was accessible, intuitive, different, and, ultimately, revolutionary. However, I think you underestimate the appeal and functionality of the GamePad. It's much more than a touchscreen controller; it allows for new ways to play games, and new ways to interact with friends. Plus it functions as a universal remote, and a semi-portable console. It represents a living room hub like the Wii never did.

There is just no hard data proving that Wii owners migrated over to Kinect and to tablets. Moreover, there is no hard data proving that these audiences -- Wii, Kinect, and tablets -- are mutually exclusive. It's entirely possible that many Wii owners also possess a tablet, and vice versa.

I'm not sure what a core gamer is, according to your argument. So I don't really know how to respond to that. Could you elaborate?

I strongly believe that the Ouya and the other rumored or confirmed consoles you mentioned will not eat away at Nintendo's sales. We know very little about many of them, so it's hard to predict one way or the other. But my money is on the big three remaining just that -- the big three.

"WiiU fails to create a compelling reason to own it for most people." Again, there is no empircal evidence to support this statement. It's only been two weeks since the system launched. Pre-orders and first-week sales indicate a strong and steady level of enthusiasm for Nintendo's first HD console. I do agree with you on one point here, and that is that Nintendo should have launched a Wii HD in 2010. I believe Michael Pachter also predicted this would happen. His prediction was wrong, but his point was right. Nintendo should have done that.

Finally, I think you seriously underestimate the number of Wii owners who will want to upgrade to a Wii U, if not now then in the next 18 months. And the Nintendo faithful you mention -- well they might have been 20 million in 2001-2006, but imagine how many converts are in the world after the spectacular success of Wii. IGN conducted a survey a few months ago, and there were some interesting results. One of them had to do with brand loyalty. It demonstrated that 68% of consumers who own and play a Wii "very often" are interested in purchasing a Wii U. Now, you might argue that all these Wii owners have long since abandoned their Wii consoles, and so the number of people who play Wii "very often" are few and far between. I don't think that is the case, as Wii software sales continue to do quite well. People are still out there playing and enjoying the Wii.

In the end, 30 million is just far too low a number. I would predict something between 60 and 80 million, and would be dumbfounded if the number failed to reach 50 million.

That's the most level-headed and insightful response I've gotten on this site in quite some time.   Thank you for that.

I may be underestimating the gamepad, that remains to be seen, however, whereas the Wiimote made us all envision lightsaber battles, sports, fishing, shooting etc with this new controller, the gamepad is largely old news as it's been on DS for many years and we all play touchscreen games now.  It lacks the initial appeal of the wiimote and people will need to be convinced it's something they want.  I've watched people playing WiiU on the in-mall kiosks.  While I'm sure they are having fun, it's sure not obvious to those looking on.  They are just staring at the tv, gamepad, tv, mostly expressionless, as opposed to the laughing, physical fun that Wii displays had.   To use a fishing analogy, the gamepad may have a good hook but lacks the tasty worm the Wii had.

There is a ton of statistics that show the casual gaming market now uses tablets as their primary gaming device.  I havn't seen any stats saying 'X' percentage of Wii owners or Kinect owners but by and large, it's the same market segment.  Mid-core gamers are also migrating over to tablets as their primary gaming device.   There's two reasons for the mid-core - A) The console development costs are so high that publishers only make the broadest appealing games now.  Basically action or FPS.   A lot of genres are dying on consoles - JRPGs, stealth, survivor horror and those are the bigger ones.   Tablets have small development costs and so developers can cater to those groups.  Also Mid-core gamers are as less demanding so while the tablet games are indeed inferior, they are 'good enough' for that crowd.

So Nintendo isn't competing with MS and Sony so much as they are Apple and Android.  Apple has shifted the gaming paradigm, especially for the casual market and I don't feel the WiiU goes nearly far enough to address that challenge.  It also sets a low bar for MS/Sony to beat with their next consoles as Nintendo hasn't done anything that couldn't be easily duplicated and surpassed in a year by it's competitors.

I do think Ouya and it's ilk has the potential to draw away WiiU sales as it'll play popular tablet games on your tv with a regular controller for a mere fraction of the price.    That'll undercut WiiU at the low end while MS will likely win with at the high end.