How do we go through 3 pages and no one lists numbers from the site.
As of Dec 3rd VGC data:
| Console |
NA |
Japan | EU+Others |
| Wii | 43.33 | 12.63 | 41.25 |
| X360 | 39.29 | 1.62 | 29.16 |
| PS3 | 24.36 | 8.65 | 35.33 |
So, now lets see each gap.
Wii vs X360 in NA has a gap of 43.33 - 39.29 = 4.04m.
Wii's decline will slow as it hits the $99 price point with the new WiiMini and other bundles for 2013-2015 as its retired as a console.
X360's decline is already double digits per year (just as Wii's was beginning in 2011). It will be higher once neXtBox is confirmed in early 2013.
Wii's 2012 NA should end ~2m. X360s NA should be ~5m. That means X360 gained 3m in 2012. 2013 would at most be another 3m. So depending on how much Wii's decay rate slows and how much X360's increases... it could happen in 2014.
So yes, there is a distinct possibility X360 will have the lead in NA by 2014, but at the very least it SHOULD happen before each console is retired.
Wii vs PS3 is Europe+Others has a gap of 41.25 - 35.33m = 5.92.
Wii's decline will also slow here, especially as the WiiMini is introduced and it becomes more affordable in "others".
PS3's decline here should remain the same with double digit declines as its cost also continues to go down.
Wii's 2012 EU+Others should end ~2m. PS3's EU+Others should end ~5m. This really is almost identical to X360 in NA, just a slightly larger gap. Kinda funny.
So yes, there is a distinct possibility PS3will have the lead in EU+Others by 2015, but at the very least it SHOULD happen before each console is retired.
Conclusion:
So, a little more than a year ago I thought this wasn't going to happen, but of course Wii declined further than I anticipated. So so long as each console is around to 2015, then its definitely plausible we'll have three consoles that are market leaders in three different regions of the world. Man this gen has been so much different than ALL before it. Can't wait for next!
In the end, I don't think it matters beyond fanboy boasting. Wii dominated, 3rd parties chose PS360PC. Nintendo realized it wasn't going to happen and moved on over two years ago.
Now we have a new generation and new possibilities. Each has their strengths and their potential money makers. Of course... there is a very likely outcome that a 4th and 5th competitor will enter the ring. (I think it will happen in 2013 and it will hurt Sony more than anyone else)
