Veknoid_Outcast said:
Thirty million units seems so low to me...why so little do you think? Just because of tablets and things like Ouya? Personally, I'd be shocked if it sold fewer than 50 million lifetime. But I'm interested to read your thinking on this. |
The Wiimote was something both A) new and exciting and B) immediately understandable to all people, gamers or not.
The gamepad is neither new and exciting (2nd touch screen is 8 years old now) and with a return to dual analog, the controller is not immediately understandable, despite having a limited touchscreen.
Furthermore, Wii's audience has largely moved to Kinect or moreover tablets. To go from Wiimote to kinect to gamepad is completely illogical - if that's your idea of gaming then the dual analog, gamepad is a dinosaur. However the hundreds of millions using smartphone and tablets for gaming are the bigger concern.
33% of all smartphone use and 65% of all tablet use is gaming. When you think about it, that's an immense amount. That's a higher percentage of time than my Wii gets (thanks to Netflix). Tablets are primarily gaming systems and they outsell home consoles easily. This is largely WiiU's audience now playing very simple games like Angry Birds, Fruit Ninja and such which used to play Wii Sports and Mario Kart. Plus they are paying $0-$15 for a game. Are they now going to go back to paying $60? It's possible, but the game has to be a lot more enticing than what we're currently seeing on WiiU.
On the other end of the spectrum WiiU doesn't offer nearly enough to convince core gamers to buy it and buy games for it instead of just sticking to their existing HD system. Plus we know the next gen systems for MS and Sony are on the horizon so most will wait to see what they offer.
From what we're seen so far, PS4 will still largely target the core - a losing strategy IMO - however MS is going to be very, very aggressive about casuals (and core). A much enhanced Kinect along with halograms or other virtual reality tricks will make the Nextbox the most hyped gaming system since Wii. IF those rumours and leaks have merit. If MS can deliver a Wii Sports like killer game. I'm not convinced MS has the DNA but they have had a couple solid years with Kinect to learn the ropes. I don't think they'll totally drop the ball either.
Add in wildcards like Wikipad, Ouya, Oculus Rift and Steambox and WiiU is facing a degree of competition for both the core and casual that Wii never had.
Nintendo abandoned the dual screen idea for Wii and resurrecting it 6 years later doesn't make it more relevant. In many ways it's seems primative compared to the touchscreen devices we already all own. It is somewhat novel and I'm sure fun. But so is Angry Birds. WiiU fails to create a compelling reason to own it for most people. Especially if you already own a Wii with NSMBWii, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, etc. The WiiU versions don't look to add enough to justify a new console and new game purchase for casual gamers. If WiiU had launched in 2010, it would have benefitted more from the uniqueness of the controller (then) and the slip-over enthusiasm from the Wii. But the Wii's shine started ebbing in 2009 and by 2012 there's little left over.
So this leaves the Nintendo core, enthusiast gamers who buy all consoles and whatever remains of Wii spillover. I give WiiU the same sales as GC for the former and an extra 20m for the latter - minus 10m as I expect the home console market as a whole to shrink massively. WiiU will also have all the challenges Wii and Nintendo always face (poor 3rd party support, sopratic game release, Nintendo's split attention between core/casual) but also the perks (Nintendo IPs and outstanding quality games)
30m is not a failure for Nintendo, especially because every WiiU + game sold is a profit, but it's no Wii success. It will be disappointing but good enough considering the market shrinkage and competition. It also allows Nintendo to launch yet another system in 4-5 years that will out-perform and out-innovate whatever MS/Sony had launched just 2-3 years earlier.
