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I think it will be Obama vs McCain, and Obama will win because Ron Paul will come back as an independent and take 5-7% of the vote. He will be the biggest third party candidate since Ross Perot, imo.

However, if Ron Paul doesn't come back as a third party candidate (independent, libertarian, w/e), then it will be a close fight.

If Hillary takes the Democratic nomination (which I don't think she will), then McCain will win fairly easily, imo.