I'd go with forum members' expectations.
The profits method is absolutely silly. I mean, Sony fans here will crucify me if I say that the PS3 is still the floppiest flop in floptown, right? By this method, that would be a reasonable statement to make. Also, Mario will always make profit, even if it only sells 1m. Does that mean that NSMBU will not be a flop if it sells 1m?
Going by publisher expectations would make sense, but it doesn't. Publishers will always change their "expectations" to match their agenda. Don't wanna make games for this console? "This game only sold 2m; we expected so much more!" Have to justify wasting more resources here to investors? "This is selling exactly according to expectations."
“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx
