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HappySqurriel on 01 December 2012
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noname2200 said:
HappySqurriel said:


I would argue that the Dreamcast makes a pretty poor counter-point primarily because of the abysmal financial position of Sega at the time coupled with the long string of mistakes that alienated their core customers, and the fact that the PS2 was the successor to the previous generation's market leading console which was also the most successful system of all time (when the PS2 launched).

Essentially, when has the successor to a market leading console (or the successor to a 30+ Million selling system) launched a year or more before the competition and not outsold that competition? The closest we get is the XBox 360 vs. the PS3/Wii and the Genesis vs. the SNES, where (in both cases) the system that launched first saw a massive increase in sales; and even the poor Dreamcast was selling far better than the Sega Saturn, and would have likely sold 2 to 3 times as many units as the Saturn did had Sega been able to afford to keep it alive.

Counterpoint: when has the successor to a market leading console launched a year of more before the competition?The answer is either "never" or "once" (if we discount the Dreamcast...).

If you're trying to use prior data to gauge future performance, it's not much to go by. The examples you gave are actually poor ones, since the 360 for certain did not achieve a large lead during its one-year head start (and was very quickly surpassed by the Wii; the only reason things are even close today is because the Wii's support effectively died two years ago). I don't have data for North America on the Genesis' lifetime performance, but I do know that its headstart in Japan did it zero good (it placed third, behind even the TG-16) and I believe it did worse in North America as well (ultimately, the Genesis sold roughly 20 million fewer units worldwide than the SNES, notwithstanding its headstart and its superior performance in Europe).

I see nothing to indicate that lead time is a particularly big factor for success. The SNES crushed the Genesis and TG-16. The PS1 beat the N64, but not only is that the sole example, it is also likely better explained by Nintendo's failures than Sony's lead time. The Dreamcast's lead time did it virtually zero good, seeing as how the system lasted a scant 2-3 years. The 360 lost to the Wii, notwithstanding that it still effectively has three* extra years on the market.

The prior four generations indicate that lead time has far less import than you're asserting. I submit that other factors are far, far more important to the final outcome, even for third-party support, than being on the market a year or two before the competition.

 

*Again, in light of the release schedule I consider the Wii largely to have been abandoned starting in 2011. Notable releases became...scarce...starting in that year. Even assuming, arguendo, that the 360 has only one additional year, the 360 will not only still lose, but no rational arguement can be made that the additional lead time would be responsible for its gradual gaining on the Wii. Especially since its status as a second-place console, while likely, is even now not set in stone.

Lead time is a huge advantage ...

The NES, Gameboy, Playstation, PS2, and 3DS all launched significantly earlier than some or all of their competition and went on to win their generation by wide margins.

 

It isn't an "instant win" button, and it doesn't make up for massive problems the company has, but it alters direct comparisons of two consoles  much more significantly that (just about) any other single factor. Consider how, by launching a year earlier, a system will have a better library, lower price, and larger userbase against their competition throughout the generation than they would have had if they launched at the same time; which would still be better than if they launch a year behind their competition. To put a rough number to it, launching a year before competition would (probably) result in an average of 2 Million more sales per year than launching at the same time as them, and launching a year after your competition (probably) results in an average of 2 million fewer sales per year than launching along side your competition.