I think a big part of their strategy is also to deliver more indie content as they are the first to fully support the Unity 4 engine. The system needs to become a content system. One that has so much great exclusive content that it's a no brainer for gamers that they would want to have it. There are a lot of different angles to attract gamers and cutting edge graphics is only one of them. Plus they are the only console that could see a flurry of touch based mobile games making their way over. Yeah I know smartglass exists but if you have a tablet you'll just buy those games off your tablet no?
I would expect some really nice exclusive support from Japan as well but only time will tell. Dragon Quest 10 could help to build up a jprg audeince in Japan that would lead to other jrpg exclusives in the future. Much like the 3ds versus the Vita.
At the end of the day there is way more that is unknown about the system than is known and only time will tell. But I don't believe that Nintendo is stupid or that you can count them out. Their systems have been pretty popular under Iwata and I don't think anyone expected the 3ds to maintain the pace it is maintaining despite mobile competition.
