| superchunk said: Agreed, however, I still don't see why anyone would care if it was in these consoles. Pretty much no-one will be able to view it in 4K and honestly I have absolutely zero belief next-gen will sport native 1080p for the majority of games. I'm betting most will be 720p native in the first place. As for movies... pretty much everyone still uses DVDs for everything. Does anyone think a 4K disc/digital movie will be even remotely mainstream in the next 5 to 7 years? I don't. It'll take another 3 years before BR is dominant, let alone anything else. |
Slowly 4K displays are coming to market. They are on the extreme high-end, however they'll be coming down as 4K technology is perfected.
I was an early adopter for HD, and that was two years after HD first was released and the cost of the displays dropped nearly 50%. Still, I paid $7,000 for a TV that a couple of years later would be $5,000 less. I watched the price of both Plasma and LCD displays fall dramatically. LCD displays the most in the shortest amount of time. So, as far as 4K displays go, I think give them enough time and the price will come down. That is, within the lifetime of Gen8 consoles.
I believe the majority of games next generation will be 1080p. As someone else mentioned, the current generation are 720p, so it wouldn't make sense to be 720p this genration. Based on the hardware, I sincerely doubt games of any sort will be 4K. Since it takes a lot less work to display a video in 4K than render a game in 4K, I have serious doubts about either console being capable of 4K natively for gaming.
The major benefit to displaying video in 4K or upscaling output to 4K will be for those people who purchase 4K displays. Is it going to be an immediate feature usable on day one? Don't know. Possibly. Will it be a feature that will definitely be there when consumers demand it? Very likely, as 1080p was on the Xbox 360. The Xbox 360 originally only supported 480i/p, 720p, and 1080i. After an update to the firmware it was capable of supporting 1080p as well. So, my guess is if it isn't supported out of the box, but the hardware supports it, than it'll be supported sometime later with a firmware upgrade.
I don't foresee a huge change in streamed media. However with both the next Xbox and PlayStation supporting Blu-Ray there may be an uptick in Blu-Ray sales. Especially with Blu-Ray discs falling into the price territory that DVDs were at their peak. With Blu-Ray offering 1080p visuals, I don't think many people will pass-up the opportunity to view disc-based media over streamed media. Your timeline for Blu-Ray might be right on, though I may suggest two if the next Xbox is released then. However, I do believe 4K will be upon us when Gen9 officially arrives or 10 years from now.
You have to understand, the biggest limitation of 4K is not the TV sets, computer monitors, games, or even disc media. The #1 limiting factor are satellites, and the number #2 broadcast networks or film studios to use the technology. Until the satellites obtain wider bandwidth or more up them are sent into space, 4K broadcasts can't really happen regardless of what TVs are in homes. Not to mention every network and affiliate switched over to HD, they will be hard pressed to move quickly to 4K. So the most you'll see in 10 years are movies and TV shows showing up in 4K, which studios will love because it'll be a defacto piracy protection.
I do think the price of the displays will come down, and I do think people will adopt them, and I do think that will happen in Gen8. However, I doubt the industry will be switched completely like we are to HD now. Your videophiles and enthusiasts will make the jump to 4K first, then high-end buyers and gamers, then early adopters, and finally the mainstream. In otherwords, the displays will make their way through the system before 4K media/content becomes widespread. About the time it does, Gen9 should be on the way, or Gen10. In any case, I give it 10 years before console technology will render UltraHD or 4K graphics in video games as a native standard.
