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Stever89 on 09 February 2008
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CrazzyMan said:
@Stever89, use the ENTER button. It`s hard to read all this stuff. =) Fixed
1.5 mln. LTD in Japan? Very possible. By the end of 2008? No way.

and you think it'll just "stop selling?
I THINK there IS such POSSIBILITY, since speculations made on SMG/SMS sales.

And why can't it reach 1.5 by end of 2008? It only needs 10k a week in order to do so, and if it averages 5k a week for the next 40 weeks, and then 25k or so for the next 8 weeks after that (those 8 weeks being holiday weeks, holiday weeks meaning higher sales), it'll reach 1.5 million, or close. "No way" is being way too limited.

The fact that the Wii has outsold the GC in two regions after only a year and a few months, just shows that it will NOT go down dramitically. And please, don't say that it's sold so well because all the Mariofans went out and bought one before or right when SMG came out. The game only has a 25% attach rate (5.5 million to 21 million), and the GameCube didn't sell this fast even though SMS came out in it's first year. In all reality, you say it the other way around. All Mariofans bought the GameCube, but Mariofans and others (casuals, hardcores, non-casuals, etc) are buying the Wii.

Best way to wait, till Wii reach GC userbase, that is 21,5 mln., and then see at sales.

For now, it`s 4 mln. vs 5 mln. in Japan. let`s see how long Wii sales will be around 50-100k. Maybe after 5.5. mln. it will go down.
Europe reached 6.8 mln., that 2 mln. more, then GC, Let`s get 7.5 mln.
Usa need to reach 13,5 mln. atleast.

Then it will be very interesting to look at wii and SMG sales.

And why after 5.5 million will it just "go down?" What PROOF do you have? If the GC could only sell 4 million in Japan with the 900k "Mariofans" why should the Wii pass 4 million? And why should it get to 5.5 million and then just stop? Only two possiblities work here, and neither of them support 5.5 million and then "going down":

  1. The Wii only sells to Mariofans/Nintendo fans, and they buy the WIi just like they bought the GC. Sales die at 4 million
  2. The Wii sells to Mariofans/Nintendo fans and all other types of gamers (including hardcore and casual players) and non-gamers. This is similar to the PS2, in that the PS2 sold to every type of gamer, except perhaps the non-gamers (or at least not as much as the Wii is), and thus the Wii should sell as much as the PS2 and possibly even more. That puts the Wii much higher than 5.5 million.
  3. The same logic applies to the other regions. Why would the Wii sell more if it's only selling to "Mariofans"? And if it's selling to more than "Mariofans" why would it only sell more than the GC, yet not much more?

You only the Wii selling 26.5 million consoles, and it's probably going to double that amount this year. Logical? No. Crazzy Logical? Perhaps.

For now, we need more data.

Yes we do. Unfortunately for you, the data probably won't favor your view.

 

Japan is down accross the board. When you look at sales in Japan, only 23 titles sold more than 10k this week, and 10 of those games were new releases. That means Japan is down.

Fixed.

and you think it'll just "stop selling?
I THINK there IS such POSSIBILITY, since speculations made on SMG/SMS sales.

When I was referring to the "stop selling" I was talking about if the Wii would stop selling, which I don't think will happen. I think you read it wrong (and then misquoted me for the 10th time) and thought I was talking about SMG. Either way, so what if SMG sales go down? Does that mean that the Wii will stop selling? If you think only "Mariofans" buy the Wii, look at my points above. If you think SMG will stop selling, I can only say that I've given my evidence and data and now only time will tell. And, just like in the "Wii will stop selling" case, I think you'll be very wrong.