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Each brand has its benefits but then each brand has exceptions to the rule.

Nintendo: 

  • Make a great game on one of their portables and it would likely be ignored or sell modestly regardless of quality (999, RE:R).  
  • Make it for the Wii and it will be seen as underpowered and won't sell unless it's directed towards "casual" audiences
  • Make it for the Wii U...that's a wild card.  If the game is really good and takes advantage of the hardware, it would likely garner a lot of internet praise and lure more gamers towards Nintendo's newest console.  Also, the competition isn't quite there, yet.  The time to release a new and awesome IP is right now.

Sony: 

  • Releasing a Sony portable is pretty much suicide.
  • Releasing on the PS3--I'm not sure if any third party exclusive shy of Metal Gear Solid 4 has sold extremely well.  Even the mighty Valkyria Chronicles limped to a million with sub MSRP prices.  I bought it for less than $20 long before it reached that milestone.
  • Certain genres do better on Playstation platforms but only certain big titles in those certain genres do well time after time. It would be hard for a new franchise to break the glass ceiling.

Microsoft:

  • They only have the one platform and third party exclusives are extremely rare these days (unless it's for XBLA or Kinect).  It's a bit of an unknown.
  • Xbox gamers buy a lot of games but they seem to follow what's popular.  New titles have a hard time breaking in when the audience is trained to buy Gears, Halo, Forza, and Fable.

I'd say that, if I were to release a game for just one console, I'd release it for the PS3.  Though I hate the practice, Sony fans seem to advertise any game believed to be exclusive for you.  Agent was one of the best games this gen despite the fact that all we ever saw was a logo.  The game would have the potential to sell more on Xbox 360 (and yes, it's not about some artistic vision.  It's about sales.) and it could stand out on a Nintendo platform that's still being established but on a PS3, I think the game is almost guaranteed to do at least decent numbers--as long as it's good.  Sony fans just seem to be more willing to embrace the unknown while Microsoft and Nintendo fans seem to enjoy more familiar fare.