This is what I suspect will happen. Sony might be in the worst position but that doesn't mean they are the most likely to slip up. Of the three I would expect microsoft are the ones to trip up most next time. Nobody is immune to making mistakes. And I think microsoft have already fallen into the key mistakes that will cost them a varied library of genres.
Microsoft have a strangely strong reliance on shooters. It is almost as if microsoft build their exclusives on this shooter image. When rumors about rare working on games for the next xbox surfaced, one was stated to be a 'mature' fps. Their flagship franchise is halo. Even their biggest third party exclusive is a shooter. Then you have this timed exclusive deal with bungie which is apparently another shooter game. You have them constantly promoting call of duty and getting exclusive rights to the dlc. This stereotype might not be true but they have given the idea off that all xbox owners buy is shooters. The other offerings they make are sides of forza and fable.
You may laugh this off but it will come to bite microsoft next generation. It is very hard to get rid of an image that the general public has of you. Ask nintendo. It might not seem like a mistake right now but that is because their new system hasn't released yet. I am willing to bet the library gets overflowed with shooters and lacks any real variety. Nintendo and sony have variety in their list of games. Microsoft do as well but they don't use them. The idea that all xbox owners buy is shooters is going to catch them next generation. Xbox owners, you won't be getting the wide range of choice you got this generation. Mark my words. Even microsoft itself is convinced it can keep the platform alive with shooters.
One more thing to complete my year = senran kagura localization =D
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