I agree with most of this post, with a couple of exceptions.
1. Sony Entertainment is profitable for Sony, which could become a blessing or a curse. They may see the need to maintain their current market position, regardless of cost, or go cheap next gen so they don't start losing money in a profitable devision. Pay attention to share holder meetings, not forums, for the answers to that.
2. Microsoft has already launched surface, and I believe developers will use surface and the Wii U pad interchangeably for easier ports. Sony also has PlayStation software on cell phones and tablets, so expect all three to be used similarly. Difference is, Sony and MS will require gamers to bring their own tablet, many with varying specs so developers will have to play to the lowest common denominator. Parents won't understand why the $100 tablet they bought Bobby at Toys R Us doesn't work with certain games, and corporations are well aware of the impact to sales if they don't address those concerns-even if ultimately they decide to ignore that group.
3. I think Microsoft will do harm to themselves by splitting up Xbox users into two systems. A lot of people bought an Xbox for its media capabilities, and buy occasional games that come with a lot of hype. With a set top box, they won't be able to purchase console games. Many casual users of the Xbox will be content with cheap app style games, which will reduce the overall install base for traditional console games. It can work-Apple historically does a good job cannibalizing their own products, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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