A while ago I would have said 2014, but now I really hope that it releases in 2013. Sales for the PS3 are down hard this year. They'll be down even harder next year, especially with the Wii U. It won't be sustainable if its the main console in 2014. Also, if the Nextbox gets the jump on the PS4, Sony would be giving Microsoft another headstart. This would dedicate a segment of consumers to Xbox Live, causing a domino effect where their opinions to spread to their friends. This would be irreversible and would hurt Sony in the long term.
What are the advantages to releasing in 2014? Releasing a more powerful console? That would be meaningless. When the difference in is the result of a mere year of technology, developers aren't going to bother maximizing the PS4. Would releasing in 2014 result in a strong lineup? Perhaps, but Sony could have a strong lineup if the PS4 released in 2013, so its not truly an 'advantage.' A year to improve power slightly simply isn't worth what they would be missing out on.
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