Is it wise to wager on a anomaly repeating itself back to back. The preponderance of consoles that have made their way to the market haven't enjoyed prolonged tails. The PS2 was a anomaly, but it was a understandable one. It was able to maintain the sales that it had, because the following generation actually generated a blow back. There was basically a lot to discourage consumers when it came to upgrading their hardware. The PS3 had a massive price tag, a weak library, and a lot of negative word of mouth. While Microsoft had a console brand that had been raised from the dead, had a high failure rate, and their console was hardly cheap. Is it any wonder that consumers hung back for a bit longer then they otherwise would have.
They basically sat on the fence buying old hardware when their old hardware broke down, and continued to buy software, because hey you gotta have games if you are a gamer. This is probably not going to happen again. The irony is that you basically have to assume that the competitors are going to replicate the same mental errors all over again at the start of the next generation.
Microsoft is building studios like it is going out of fashion, and Sony is streamlining their own studios. They are like too prize fighters trying to match one another pound for pound. Sony is slimming down, and Microsoft is putting on some weight. Sony is going to have fewer resources to pour into the PS3, because Microsoft is approaching parity in that department. Neither side seems willing to lose the library wars, and seeing as weak libraries were a big problem post launch this generation. It doesn't make much sense for either side to not be addressing this real problem.
Just as both sides are probably going to target better entry level prices. Which was another big problem. When a console costs too much. It generates a lot of problems with consumer confidence, and consumer interest. We just aren't likely to see incredibly expensive consoles. Does anyone here honestly believe that we are going to see another six hundred dollar console. Sure maybe a four hundred dollar console for the top of the line model. The newer consoles are going to be more cost competitive with their predecessors.
Given current console pricing schemes. I think it is fairly likely that base models of the new consoles will probably cost little more then a hundred dollars more then their predecessors. I just don't see us having anything close to the pricing disparities we saw this generation, because the players have learned their lessons. It is really unlikely that we will see five hundred dollar gulfs.
I just don't see any of the players not making it a priority to shift their player bases as quickly as possible. Really it should stand to reason for both, but Sony most of all, because of their financial situation. I am starting to feel like a broken record on this, but Sony needs to bring in serious cash. If their new console can generate real profit on the hardware alone. Then they need to be selling a lot of them to get Sony back into the black. If their hardware is modest enough. They could trade on their brand, and make billions in short order. Mind you it wouldn't be all that good for their fans, but it would be really good for their bottom line.
If you don't buy any of that then just look at the number of studios that both have. That haven't announced any games, or have far more staff then the output that is coming out. The current consoles aren't going to have any great longevity, because their manufacturers have already turned most of their effort onto the next generation. Mind you I have reservations about Sony even making it there, but they still look to be going forward with the plan.
Anyway if your entire argument depends on such a Anomaly. You need more then siting a single past occurrence to convince me, or well anyone with anything close to a analytical mind. That it will indeed repeat itself. It is as if you were arguing that mankind will go extinct next year, because Dinosaurs went extinct sixty five million years ago. Sure it could happen, and there is a real probability of it happening. That doesn't however mean you are free to not make a logical argument as to why it is going to happen.
By the way before you drop the ten year life cycle propaganda. Don't even waste your breath. Sony has said a lot of things, promised a lot of things, and outright lied about many things. Their saying something doesn't make it automatically true. I am kind of tired of this whole diatribe about how the PS3 is going to just chug on for three, or more years after this generation has ended. If you want to say it then back it up with some kind of conjecture in which it could be a rational reality.
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