People are giving a bit too much credit to how much GTA 4 will move hardware, imo.. i mean.. lets say it moves an extra 2 million hardware on EACH of the consoles during its launch period (before being regulated back to normal sales) ... ok..so thats 4 million (most optimistic scenario for hardware moving, i'd say).. then what? wii will still be outselling them both together right after that dies down.. and although nintendos marketshare will take a fairly big hit, probably about 5%.. but then it'll just start building up again slowly.. then we'll be having the same discussion in 12 months when MGS4 or FFXIII come out
I agree, and believe, that Smash Bros isn't going to raise console sales that much.. perhaps it'll double usual weekly sales for one week (not optimistically).. since most (but not all, probably like halo 3 to xbox 360, but with a different sales trend) of the smash crowd already own wiis...
That said.. Mario Kart and Wii Fit.. those two are the software titles that are going to bring in the masses, and they won't push wii up to 50%, but they will be a big step in pretty much nullifying a lot of the effect GTA4s launch had
This post is purely speculative, but i feel i've made pretty fair calls
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