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I think 4GB fits. There isn't much point in going to 8. Most third parties go multiplat now, so if you overkill on your machine vs your competitors, few games will take advantage of it. 4GB would provide a nice advantage vs WiiU and jump vs last gen, but 8 would probably be more than is needed for a dedicated games machine. Your trend analysis is good not because it tells us what games companies are thinking, but because it follows the advancement and cost reduction of memory technology.