| Dodece said: @Akvod That would be like taking on Satan as a spiritual adviser. At best you would get their side of the story, and at worst all you would get is spin. Neither of which would likely be the truth. After all do you know anybody who would say on the record that they have a gut feeling that their company is going to implode in a year. Even if you think that you are going to be unemployed in a year. You don't just come out and say it. Unless your looking to move it forward by getting yourself fired. That said your commentary was basically a double negative, or was it a triple or quadruple negative. Firstly you say your not a expert, and then offer up your expert opinion. How can you say that Sony can make a case if you don't know the facts. Secondly you once again wave your credentials of not being a expert, and then offer up a expert opinion that I am not a expert. How would you know that seeing as your are not a expert. Okay fun time is over. Any lay person is qualified to render a informed verdict. No special knowledge is required. Sony is a publicly traded company, and as such we have access to their financial statements, their contracts, their copyrights, their patents, and even their tax returns. So it isn't like there is a grand mystery here. There is really a good amount of evidence to work with. Juries have sentenced people to death with less information. If you feel your inadequately informed that is fine, and it is good of you to admit. However that doesn't mean that others in this community are equally uninformed. Many here have spent years getting well versed with how Sony has operated, and the current disposition of the company. In a nutshell a lot of us are far from being babes in the woods. |
My point is that Sony has a potential future cash inflow. That's all my original point was, and Sony can make an argument as to why people should invest in them. And people can have different conclusions.
But to judge whether or not they have a case, you're going to need a good guess as to what their margins are going to be, sales (which will be based on projected market share for an entire new line of consoles x size of the next gen console market), other sources of revenue, their cost of capital, etc.
And that's pretty fucking hard. Especially for a brand new console gen. where you're essentially starting from scratch, and there can be so much volatility. And as much as people make fun of analysts like Pachter, doing projections are complex. And that's ignoring the fact that Sony is a conglomerate with multiple businesses that may be doing well or unwell.
So I just get irritated when I see people like you writing some kind of wordy liberal arts essay ("That would be like taking on Satan as a spiritual adviser.", really?)
Give me some numbers. Give me some projected numbers. Give me some details, or at least a back of the hand calculation and then I'll listen. Otherwise, I'm going to think you're just talking out of your ass.
