Kasz216 said:
Robo Callers can't call cellphones.
Younger people in the city are more likely to not use landlines and just cellphones. |
Its going to be interesting to see how they deal with this going into the future, as I only see the issue becoming more pronounced. Personally, I think its only part of the problem, as far as this election is concerned.
In terms of land-line calls, the robodial surveys seem to be far outnumbered by other methods (particularly live calls), and most of the polling houses that used robodials only conducted a few surveys (1-4) each (except Rasmussen which is a mixture & Survey USA), and most of these surveys still moved to a more pro-Obama prediction if they conducted later polls. Some of the polls are just strange as well.....I mean +15.7 bias for Romney.....I don't think anybody would have trusted that at any point in the campaign.
My opinion, and I've said this before, is I would like to see the likely voter screening for some of the bigger polling houses (Gallup and Rasmussen). People tend to overreport voting by about 10-20 percent in post-election polls (in 2008, it was about +15). I would assume people would also overreport intending to vote as well, which could throw off likely voter predictions, depending on how they determine likely voters.
Big picture though, the polls weren't really that inaccurate. If I had to guess, I would say final week polls underestimated Obama's victory by about 2 percentage points. It could be better, but still not bad given the margin of error.
