dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:
Soleron said:
dallas said:
The market research analysts have uniformly said that msft will keep about five percent market share for smartphones but get around twenty percent for tablets.
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I'd be prepared to bet on the reverse.
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Ok, and why is that?
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Apple already has tablets completely locked down. When making software, developers only consider the iPad.
Phones are much more in flux because they're already porting to Android as well. The build quality and integration of the new HTCs and Lumias are superior in some ways to Android and iPhones, whereas with the Surface it's not better than anything that already exists.
Fundamentally I think people don't want to use Windows on a tablet, even with shiny Metro.
The analysts are thinking that because there are a lot of makers of RT/Pro tablets that it will succeed. Actually I think MS will universally undercut them all so only Surface is viable, and then I don't see actually 1 in 5 people outright choosing a Surface.
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Ok, well apple has been steadily dropping market sharesince the beginning and now, is down to about 50%. I can't call that a lock on the tablet market, it's still anybody's game. And Microsoft is ossibly just using the surface as a flagship device, to show off the OS more than to dominate the market.
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Marketshare is not so steadily declining, actually. Apple's share dipped down to 53% last holiday quarter with the launch of the Fire, but Amazon's position quickly collapsed and Apple clawed back up to 65% in the following two quarters. Now it's back down to 50% on new Fires and the Nexus 7 just prior to the holidays, but this time Apple has a new product launch and a refresh of its own to counter, with Windows RT playing the dark horse. Are these new tablets going to stick, or are they going to burn out after the burst of launch enthusiasm?
Things are very volatile, but if anybody's going to threaten Apple, they need to do more than just ship a bunch of units into the channel at discount prices. They need to move content. Microsoft needs to attract developers, Google needs to pay its developers and expand its content portfolio (difficult to do when its entire business model is based on the commoditization of content), and Amazon needs to get some global reach in video and music.
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