iPad mini sells more in 3 days than the Nexus 7 has sold in the past month

[famousringo]

Helloplite said:

famousringo said:

IKnowMyName said:

I'm kinda new here but....WTF?

I don't think apple will ever exceed Nintendo Wii sales...EVER. You might want to recount that iphone sales. You have to remember that Wii is only ONE unit. Iphone has iphone 1, 2, 3, 3gs, 4, 4s, 5 & soon to be 5s. Ipad has 1, 2, 3 and soon to be 4. And now mini pad.

So, we can now safely say that Nintendo will still be crowned king of sales for ONE unit.

Don't be so sure. Apple sold 125 million iPhones in the past year, and research has shown that around 90% of iPhones sold are the latest model. That means 112 million iPhone 4S's.

Even if the 4S hasn't sold that many yet, you have to take into account that the smartphone market is still growing rapidly, while game consoles seem like they might not be growing at all. The iPhone 5 will likely sell 150 million units or more.

I am not sure if you are using troll logic or if you simply are not good at maths, but the fact that 90% of all iPhones sold in the most recent quarter were iPhone 4S, does not necessarily mean that 90% of all iPhones sold in the last year were the 4S. For all we know, early attach rates were more evenly distributed, and also we know that iPhone is selling faster (better?) now than it did a year ago -- almost 50% faster.

However, it is dangerous to draw any hard conclusions. Unless it can be proven that iPhone consistently increases its marketshare (and so far we know that it only in fact increases it modestly) it could only be a case of fast replacement (adoption of devices by existing users). 'Growing' rapidly is relative, and iPhone 5 grows rapidly only in comparison to previous iPhone models, not Android.

I draw conclusions based on the best information I have available, and how the hell is that "dangerous?" Nobody is going to get maimed if the iPhone 4S hasn't actually sold 100 million units yet.

But try this one on for size, if the share of iPhone sales which are not the latest model is greater than 10%, that just means the 4S will continue to garner more sales now that the 5 has launched, and continue to sell when the 6 launches. Not troll logic, actual logic. And since iPhone shipments increased by 78% in the last year and 75% the year before that, the 4S would likely sell more units in its lifetime if you're right than if you're wrong.

Don't believe me? Here's the math:

Two scenarios, let's be conservative and assume iPhone growth will slow from 75% down to 50% in both of them. In one scenario, the latest phone sells 90% of all units, and in the other, 70%. In both scenarios, the remainder of sales will be split evenly between two older models, so the 4S will see either 5% or 15% of sales in the next two years before it's off the shelves.

	Total iPhone shipments	iPhone 4S units (Scenario 1)	iPhone 4S units (Scenario 2)
FY2012 (actual)	125M	112.5M (90%)	87.5M (70%)
FY2013 (projected)	188M	9.4M (5%)	28.2M (15%)
FY2014 (projected)	281M	14.1M (5%)	42.2M (15%)
Total units shipped	594M	136M	157.9M

So now who isn't very good at math?