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Now now OP, don't lets be silly.

I fully expect the Wii-U to do well, and be a good profitable machine for Nintendo.

I don't believe anything is going to be the PS2 of next generation, because I don't believe that kind of dominance is going to happen ever again. It would require Nintendo to get everything right and get all the important third-party exclusives, including games that I believe are never going to go exclusive again.

The other two would have have to get plenty of things wrong as well. Sony got plenty of things wrong this generation and that still didn't put them out of the game.

Even if, for arguments sake, Wii-U did become a beast. I doubt many of the factors in the OP are going to come into play. #1, as other people have pointed out, has hardly ever lead to generation-winning. #2 isn't particularly a reason of any sort, nor is #4 (you can't make swinging presumptions this early in the game).