| theprof00 said: @kasz and gameover Sorry, but I'm still confused as to what the original point was. Nate's saying that over the final three weeks there was republican bias on the polls, and then even down to the very end, that bias correct except for some, and only because of certain polling techniques. I'm not sure why, but I'm still getting the sense that you guys are saying that Nate Silver is being partisan with this meta-data. |
I'm not saying he's putting a partisan slant on it. I even admitted there's seems to be a republican bias to the polls....the bias is just much smaller if you look at the later polls (the final week). Generally, when people look at the accuracy of polls, they look at the polls over the final week because it gives a better snapshot of the electorate. Point being, the closer you get to the election, the more accurate the polls tend to be.
For instance, an actual peer reviewed article on poll accuaracy from 2008. If you recognize, the earliest poll they consider was released on 10/29....7 days before the election.....not 21 days. The main point is, a lot can happen over three weeks, and a snapshot 3 weeks out is not necessarily an accurate snapshot of election day behavior.
