GameOver22 said:
theprof00 said:
Kasz216 said:
theprof00 said:
GameOver22 said:
Taking polls from the last 21 days is a bit strange. I would have used them from the last week, where a lot of polls were picking up a late Obama surge. |
>arguing with Nate Silver about polling data.
|
Actually he's argueing with him about methodology... not the data.
Nate Silver basically says he used 21 days because some people think pollsters cook the numbers at the end of an election.
While gameover is suggesting that even if such a thing is true, to use 21 days would be a flawed method because there had been actual changes that would outlook. Like the hurricane.
Gameover actually has a valid point, which is why if you actually read the Nate Silver piece you'll note he doesn't actually argue for that point in anyway. Just saying it's a common measure... and agrees that Gameover has a point.
"Some of the overall Republican bias in the polls this year may reflect the fact that Mr. Obama made gains in the closing days of the campaign, for reasons such as Hurricane Sandy, and that this occurred too late to be captured by some polls. In the FiveThirtyEight “now-cast,” Mr. Obama went from being 1.5 percentage points ahead in the popular vote on Oct. 25 to 2.5 percentage points ahead by Election Day itself, close to his actual figure."
Put it at 1.5... and the numbers change quite a bit.
So i mean... if your going to argue... argue with some substance. Rather then relying on appeal to authority of something you haven't read.
It's actually an interesting article, so it's worth a read rather then just assuming it's right without knowing the content. It talks about methodology problems involving things like cellphones effecting certain kinds of polling.
|
Except gameover said to take the poll data from the last few days and Nate says polls didn't keep up with the last few days.
|
I said the last week, and there most definitely is data from the last week.
|
"Some of the overall Republican bias in the polls this year may reflect the fact that Mr. Obama made gains in the closing days of the campaign, for reasons such as Hurricane Sandy, and that this occurred too late to be captured by some polls. In the FiveThirtyEight “now-cast,” Mr. Obama went from being 1.5 percentage points ahead in the popular vote on Oct. 25 to 2.5 percentage points ahead by Election Day itself, close to his actual figure.
Nonetheless, polls conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign had a two-point Republican bias overall, probably more than can be explained by the late shift alone. In addition, likely voter polls were slightly more Republican-leaning than the actual results in many races in 2010."
