My data is from VGC home pages and from here
Halo 3's numbers
- 1st week: 3.8m
- 10 weeks: 5.8m
- 1st 52 weeks: ~8.2m
- 2nd 52 weeks: ~2.0m
- Lifetime: ~12m
Halo: Reach's numbers
- 1st week: 3.7m
- 10 weeks: 5.8m
- 1st 52 weeks: ~8.2m
- 2nd 52 weeks: ~ 1.0m (big dropoff)
- Lifetime Prediction: ~10.5m
Here's my prediction for Halo 4
- 1st week: 4.0m
- 10 weeks: 6.5m
- 1st 52 weeks: ~8.5 (a slight increase)
- 2nd 52 weeks: 0.6 (big droppoff due to Nextbox)
- Lifetime: ~9.5m
I think a lot of you are overestimating this game.
Looking at the first 52 weeks of Halo Reach and Halo 3, there was absolutely no increase from 3 to Reach. Considering Reach didn't increase over Halo 3, then I see in a best case scenario, Halo 4 selling about 8.5m for its first 52 weeks. And that's being generous imo. Why do you people expect such massive increases for the first yearl?
As for lifetime sales, I'm pretty sure that it's going to do worse than Reach. Halo Reach's legs were way worse than Halo 3's legs. There's nothing to suggest that Halo 4 will have stronger legs than past games, especially with the Nextbox rumored to release next year. That gives Halo 4 only one year to sell to the primary Xbox console. After that first year point, I expect Halo 4's legs to drop in comparison to Reach. In comparison to Reach, which had three years to sell on the primary Xbox, I'm expecting Halo 4's legs to be a bit lower.
It's going to have a great first year, but relatively weak sales afterwards.
