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that puts PS3+PS2 shippments in FY2012 at 6.3m out of which I estimate 2.2m+/-0.2 are PS2s, so we should be at 68m+/-0.2 total PS3s

PS2s shippment goal for FY2012 is likely to be around 3.5m, so PS3s should be ~12.5m, which they could only hit by shipping exactly as many PS3s in Q3/4 FY2012 as in Q3/4 FY2011 if my estimates are accurate

I hope they have an ace up their sleeves to manage that (well, Q4 should be big with all the games expected to release then)