By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
chocoloco on 31 October 2012
Edit Thread
Kasz216 said:
chocoloco said:
kitler53 said:
Kasz216 said:
kitler53 said:
thanks to sandy he probably won't win. just heard on NPR he's loosing ground as romney continues to campaign and obama can't.


I couldn't disagree more.

I mean... what could be better politically for Obama in the middle of an arguement about the correct size of govenrment... then a giant disaster that forces a number of states to rely on government?

Allowing him to look presidential and confident, while Mitt Romney either has to disapear until the end of the storm, or continue to do campaign stuff and look fakey and have people challenging him for campaigning during a national emergency.

 

The only real issue is early voting.  Which may or may not matter because I don't think the polls take that into account so much... and if anything might help.


Since there is a weird cascade effect in American politics, where if you win the east states you have a better chance of taking west states.

you can disagree all you want.  it's not really my opinion, i'm just stating what NPR reported this morning which is that obama's recent poll numbers over the last few days show him dropping.   maybe they were wrong about it being sandy's fault but i'm just saying what i heard.

No they almost all show him rising. I would get proof, but it is hardly worth my time. except this: "For both the swing state polls and the national polls to be right, something else has to give to make the math work. If Mr. Obama is performing well in swing states, but is only tied in the popular vote nationally, that means he must be underperforming in noncompetitive states." Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/oct-30-what-state-polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote/

Which more or less does seem to be the case when looking at the non competitive state poll numbers.

Obama oddly seems to be underperforming in democratic strongholds, and in Republican strongholds, but overperforming in swing states...

(aka the only states that matter.)

 

Likely it's due to the Rightwing strongholds seeing him as a socialist due to Obamacare and Illegal immigration

while the Democratic strongholds are disheartened by his neoconservative tendencies, including but not limited to, drone kill lists, pot dispensery raids, NDAA, Fiza reauthorization and Guantanomo still open.


That and the fact that a lot of democratic states have been hit kinda hard in the GFC so there has likely been some liberal migration to battleground states.

I cannot speak for most of the country concerning shifts in Swing state votes. As far as the West is concerned, there is continual rise in the Hispanic/Latino population as I am sure most are aware of. Many of these people are not known to respond to polls as they are not done in Spanish which is the language of choice for much of the demographic. This easily can be seen in New Mexico which has largely shifted to a liberal state rather quickly since it was mostly Republican since 2004. 2012's supports in New Mexico have shown that support for democrats has risen substantially since 2008, much like the Hispanic population has risen all over the country. This has had an affect on the entire Nation it would seem, that it has in my opinion. There is no other demographic rising as fast and it is historically almost as liberal a population as Blacks. This is probably not the only answer, but there is a substantial decline in White voters as the population also declines. Of course, White males are the most likely to vote Republican. I can very much say the reason Colorado is so close is because of the gigantic military presence which causes the state to have the highest male population in the country. There are obviously many variables though I do not see how people can argue against a shift in the vote due to rise of Latinos in the population. As far as I am concerned, it should be trend that continues. I am sure you are aware of most of this though I kind just have to lay it out as it does seem like it will have a large impact on the eventual outcome, and have a much larger affect in the future..

Yes, Obama has not been as liberal as his voting showed before he was elected President. It is certain that he is a pragmatist and his life story has always shown he does listen to those that disagree with him personally.