chocoloco said:
kitler53 said:
Kasz216 said:
kitler53 said:
thanks to sandy he probably won't win. just heard on NPR he's loosing ground as romney continues to campaign and obama can't. |
I couldn't disagree more.
I mean... what could be better politically for Obama in the middle of an arguement about the correct size of govenrment... then a giant disaster that forces a number of states to rely on government?
Allowing him to look presidential and confident, while Mitt Romney either has to disapear until the end of the storm, or continue to do campaign stuff and look fakey and have people challenging him for campaigning during a national emergency.
The only real issue is early voting. Which may or may not matter because I don't think the polls take that into account so much... and if anything might help.
Since there is a weird cascade effect in American politics, where if you win the east states you have a better chance of taking west states.
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you can disagree all you want. it's not really my opinion, i'm just stating what NPR reported this morning which is that obama's recent poll numbers over the last few days show him dropping. maybe they were wrong about it being sandy's fault but i'm just saying what i heard.
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No they almost all show him rising. I would get proof, but it is hardly worth my time. except this: "For both the swing state polls and the national polls to be right, something else has to give to make the math work. If Mr. Obama is performing well in swing states, but is only tied in the popular vote nationally, that means he must be underperforming in noncompetitive states." Nate Silver
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/oct-30-what-state-polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote/
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Which more or less does seem to be the case when looking at the non competitive state poll numbers.
Obama oddly seems to be underperforming in democratic strongholds, and in Republican strongholds, but overperforming in swing states...
(aka the only states that matter.)
Likely it's due to the Rightwing strongholds seeing him as a socialist due to Obamacare and Illegal immigration
while the Democratic strongholds are disheartened by his neoconservative tendencies, including but not limited to, drone kill lists, pot dispensery raids, NDAA, Fiza reauthorization and Guantanomo still open.
That and the fact that a lot of democratic states have been hit kinda hard in the GFC so there has likely been some liberal migration to battleground states.
