| Michael-5 said: Can I ask where you read that? Sony only shipped 900k in Q3 2011, which was down from 2.1 million before that. Q4 shipments last fall were also only 600k, down 50% from the year prior. Sony last confirmed 154.4 million shipped, which was a while back too, and VGC only had PS2 tracked to about 153 million at the start of this year, before they stopped supplying this info. Media Create also only lists PS2 selling 250 - 500 or so units a week, where it used to sell 1,000 a week last year. http://andriasang.com/con1sh/enterbrain_sales/ (Week Ending July 1st) I read a september report and PS2 was just below 250 sales in Japan. In America's PS2 is also basically dead, so EMEAA is supplying PS2 sales. Edit: Earlier in the year, PS2 was still selling 1,000 units or so, but prior to 2012 it's never sold below 500 a week. PS2 is phasing out. |
| Michael-5 said: DS is only 1.6 million units behind, and they stopped shipping PS2's. DS probably won't surpass PS2 by the end of 2012, but it should pass at some point in 2013. Sony hasn't shipped very many PS2's this year, and it's only selling about 1,000-3,000 units a week. That's only going to last until inventory clears, which is 154.4 million according to Sony. The DS is selling 40,000 a week, and is looking to finish the year at 2.5-3 million. So the DS only needs 1 million sales for 2013 to top PS2, and even if it doesn't do it in 2013, it will do it by 2014.
Also 3DS is tracking significantly above the DS, so 3DS could top both the PS2 and the DS. |
The Q4 number of 600k was Jan-Mar of this year, not last fall.
The DS hasn't been selling 40k a week since mid July.
Also Famitsu is not Media Create. The PS2 sold 1,081 last week according to Media Create, and has sold 48,275 so far this year. That would be an average of 1,149 sales per week in Japan alone. A far cry from your claim of only 1-3k a week worldwide. Also how can you say the PS2 hasn't shipped many this year when it outshipped the DS for Jan-Mar, it very likely outshipped it for Apr-Jun, and as long as it doesn't drop more than 63% yoy will outship the DS in the Jul-Sept quarter as well. Even if it shipped that 600k and then nothing else, that is far more than 1-3k a week. I don't know if you got that from VGC or somewhere else, but the PS2 numbers have always been horribly inaccurate here.
| Michael-5 said:
VGC tracked PS2 sales at about 2.25 million last year (730k Q1, 420k Q2, 405k Q3, and around 700k Q4), which was what 100% down from 2010 sales (PS2 sold 4.59 million units according to VGC in 2010). I don't think PS2 will be outshipping anyone in the future. Last year PS2 did ship 1.2 million in Q2, but only 0.9 million in Q3 (30% as much as the year prior) and 0.6 million in Q4 (50% as much as the year prior). They shipped 4.1 million PS2s last year, and sold 2.25 million. I really doubt that that shipped any more then 2 million (If any) PS2's this year, and I doubt that PS2 is going to sell over 1 million units WW. Last I heard PS2 shipped 154.4 million, and according to VGC and my scaling for 2012, PS2 is still trying to sell off old inventory. With sales rates crashing, 154.4 looks like a struggle as it is. So tell me, If PS2 shipped 4.1 million and only sold 2.25 million last year, given that shipped units dropped by 33% in 2011 (And above 50% drop in the last half of 2011), which is the biggest drop yet, How is PS2 outshipping the DS? DS has already sold 1.9 million units this year, and will likely end between 2.2-2.5 million, which will be double the number of PS2's sold at least. |
Case in point. In 2010 the PS2 shipped 6.9 million. According to you VGC said 4.59 (it seems like the site has been stripped of PS2 info, so I'll take your word). That's a gap of 2.31 million. Then in 2011 the PS2 shipped 4.7 million and VGC tracked 2.25. That is a gap of 2.45 million. Add in this year and you probably have a shipped/sold gap of 6+ million. (and I don't believe this discrepency just started in 2010, so the number is likely larger if you go further back) At what point do you ask yourself is a company really buying millions of PS2s that they are never going to sell, or maybe, just maybe the VGC data is completely wrong. You say that PS2 sales are crashing and businesses are trying to sell off their old inventory, but then who bought 600k of them in January to March. More than the DS which according to you is crushing the PS2 in sales this year.
Also you seem to be comparing sony financial years to VGC calendar years unless you adjusted the data for that. Another clarification, 900k is 43% of 2.1 million, not 30%.
Anyway the takeaway from all this is that the DS surpassing the PS2 is probably unlikely unless Nintendo decided to make a very aggressive price cut this holiday. This is probably unlikely though as it would cannibalize 3DS sales.
