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HappySqurriel said:
On polling ...

Over the past several years I have seen multiple elections with results that were drastically different than the polling was predicting; and (as a result of this) I would say that people are over-estimating the accuracy of the opinion polls.

Quite true. However, every single candidate that was over 50% in late October in the Gallup poll has gone on to win the election. That person is Mitt Romney.