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oniyide on 20 October 2012
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Mummelmann said:
Dallinor said:
Nice prediction.

So very little crow is ever served properly in these situations. Instead we get stuff like "well to be fair this was before X event and Y happened". So what? The industry doesn't remain static. Things are constantly changing. Simply extrapolating data to match current trends is just a really safe logical guess. It's posters using foresight to make predictions that see shifts in the industry before they really occur that's truly impressive.


This has always puzzled me. A lot of people post charts and refer to trends and history to show that they're right, history shows nothing and trends change but some are blind to this, it seems. A perfect example is how everyone was always citing that the Wii was tracking above the PS2 within the same time window, some people (I was one of them) tried to maintain that the Wii is not the PS2, the differences are vast, really vast. The Wii was late to the party, did not come off of a successful predecessor, never achieved such massive marketshare, had virtually no 3rd party support and it was technically completely inferior to the others and is/was acting in a market that is not only increasing in pace but also diverging and branching out (they even aimed specifically at that very audience).

And here we are, years later, Nintendo are close to launching their new console, despite many saying that they would never ever launch first in the 8th gen. They never snagged the 3rd party support they were assured to get since they became the market leader in sales. Nintendo did kill the console prematurely, despite insistence that this would not happen since they were doing so well. They also cut the price several times, despite people claiming they didn't have to, they released all the savior software and released colored consoles, to no avail. The whole running joke and ridicule surrounding the "the Wii will suddenly just stop selling" has come eerily close to truth. 50% marketshare remained illusive and ultimately impossible. And, of course, it will never outsell the PS2 (perhaps not even the PS1). China and India weren't the savior either (they were never going to be, that much made sense).

All in all, the hardcore Nintendo fans on this site have been more consistently wrong than anyone else in vgchartz history since none of their predictions have reached fruition. And these were the people who were the most self-assured, confident and condescending on the boards all along, laughing at everyone who dared question their stats and charts and trends and history lessons (I've learned the same history but have drawn different conclusions based on it; i.e, I've been delusional and practiced wishful thinking). One can also note that the worst offenders have all but left the site and refuse to speak on the matter at all, a true gentleman can not only admit to being wrong but also discuss the grounds surrounding the whole issue. This is how one evolves as a debater.

On a personal note, here are some things that I have said and predicted over the past five years;

"The Wii is a sprinter, not a marathon runner." "Historical sales curve might indicate a historical decline." "The Wii will never reach 50% marketshare." "The Wii audience is more fickle than those of the HD twins." "The Wii will never outsell the PS2." "Nintendo will be the first to release their next console." "The next generation will start in 2012."

And there are more things. I've been wrong on many occassions as well but I never raised the stakes to the level of some others and I never stated anything as assured or fact, simply as my opinion based on my own view on things (or as some have called it over the years; "wishful thinking", because if you thought differently, you were delusional. Yes, that very phrase was thrown around a lot in here at times).

In closing, I would like to add something; I used to see the Wii as the enemy of modern and future gaming, I really and honestly did. I don't any more, my view on that matter has completely shifted and fallen upon the Hollywood-esque Press Win Button Watered Down Ghost of the Past gameplay fronted and carried by the HD consoles. I am not a hater, but I do advice everyone to be a bit more humble when predicting things and also when analysing and countering other peoples' predictions.

Because, X event and Y event may strike at any given moment.


Amen, man. Amen