Judging where a console is at presently is always OK, though the early doom-sayers always strike me as a bit silly. I don't believe the Vita is going to have a good Holiday season, either, but I don't think it's going to necessarily be that big of a deal.
Personally, I think the Vita is going to be fine in the long run. It's just going to see deferred success because of the continued support being given to the PSP. It's going to struggle for awhile longer, but the popularity of the PSP in Japan will eventually translate over to the Vita. The first price-cut will be big. That will be like a second launch. I think we're about a year away from the Vita seeing a significant jump in sales. Until that time, Sony is just going to have to be content with considering PSP + Vita sales as one.
