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With that time frame in mind, I think the wii will win. Wii will have very good deals, vita will still be expensive. The vita only has one major release in that time frame, and that is call of duty (which I think will still do horribly).

The wii currently has a 50% drop in sales year round, and I think that will hold up. The wii sold roughly 500k a week until mid jan (about 3.6m). So split in half we have around 1.8m Wii (probably will be more) vs w/e vita does. Just don't think vita can do that without more software.