spaceguy said:
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Based on what?
I'm assuming you're using FiveThirtyEight which is simply aggregating polls, shows both candidates in a statistical dead heat even though there are significant doubts about the methodogy of many of the polls they're aggregating, and makes the "claim" of one candidate's chance of winning which is not supported by any solid statistical evidence.
Realistically, either candidate has a strong chance of winning or losing this election at this point in time because a swing of 0.5% to 1% of the popular vote from one candidate to the other in the battleground states would win either one the presidency.
This week's debate could be nearly as bad for Obama as the one was last week being that Biden is known for saying really dumb things when he isn't using a prepared speech and is trying to impress people. I would say that there is a significant chance that, if Paul Ryan really starts to "win" the debate, Biden could say something remarkably stupid that causes problems for Obama.