Where do we go from here?
On the Dem side at least, Obama suddenly has the momentum back. Whereas he was losing almost every one of these states but Illinois three weeks ago, he took 14 of 22 last night. He lost the big contest in Caloifornia, but ran very strongly in the South and crushed in the Midwest, and even stole a state (Connecticut) out of Clinton's backyard.
The upcoming calendar favors him as well. Here's the contests up to March 4, with my judgment of who's favored:
Feb. 9
Louisiana - No clear favorite
Nebraska - Obama
Washington - Obama
Louisiana has both a large black population and a lot of blue-collar whites, so it's hard to see who has the advantage here. Nebraska is midwestern, where Obama has been dominant, and the Washington Democratic party skews liberal and middle-class, which favors him as well. Both are also caucus states - Clinton has won only one caucus so far, Nevada, while Obama has taken half a dozen.
Feb 10
Maine - Clinton
It's a New England state. Clinton has dominated the Northeast so far, losing only Delaware and Connecticut.
Feb 12
District of Columbia - Obama
Maryland - Obama
Virginia - Obama
This day heavily tilts towards Obama - it's almost as if he wrote this part of the calendar himself. DC is a majority-black constituency, and Maryland's Democrats are split between wealthy whites and urban blacks. Clinton has a shot in Virginia, but for the most part VA's Dems resemble Maryland's - Northern Virginia white liberals and blacks outnumber working-class and rural whites by a good margin.
Feb 19
Hawaii - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama
Hawaii should be Obama-favored, but while it's well-known that whites and Hispanics favor Clinton and blacks favor Obama, the voting preferences of Asians-Americans (who comprise a majority of the state and the Democratic party) aren't known to me. If I had to guess, I'd say that there is no clear advantage for either candidate on that basis alone. Wisconsin is Midwestern Obama territory.
Edit: I competely forgot that Obama was born in Hawaii. Oops. He wins here, hands-down.
March 4
Ohio - No clear advantage
Rhode Island - Clinton
Texas - No clear advantage
Vermont - Clinton
If the elections were today, I think Clinton would probably win all four, but only the New England states are momentum-proof. Ohio Dems are, like Louisiana, mostly working-class whites and blacks, while Texas is a hodgepodge of every Democratic constituency - whites of all socioeconomic strata as well as blacks, Hispanics, and a significant Asian population.
Obama probably has a cash advantage, as well. He raised more money in January, even though Clinton won more contests, and he relies less on large donors (much of Clinton's donor base has already maxed out for the primary season). Neither campaign will run out of money, per se, but his ability to bring in more cash could be a difference-maker.
