| insomniac17 said: My understanding is that many polls that have Obama out in front with a large lead are using the 2008 model of voter turnout. Many Republicans find that absurd, because they don't think that the Democrats are nearly as excited as they were in the last election, and they also think that Republicans are more energized. So they have a problem with how the data is extrapolated. |
It's not that they are using the 2008 model, which was quite unique when compared to the last several elections, but they are using models that favor the Dems even more than the unusually high turnout from 2008. Hell, the last CNN poll had an 8 point advantage for Dems against Republicans (was only a 3 point advantage in '08), as well as having a 3 point advantage for Dems against Independents (Independents/Others had a 9 point lead over Dems in '08) , and Obama was only up by 3 points. Their sample was 37% D, 29% R, 34% I. Now keep in mind that in 2008, ~31% of the vote was Democrat (which are not as enthusiastic this election), ~29% were Republican (more enthusiastic this election), which left ~40% for Independents/Others (Romney leads Independents by 8%-15% depending on what poll you go by). If people think these polls are accurately showing the turnout makeup and end results of this election, they are fooling themselves.
