HappySqurriel on 02 October 2012
| insomniac17 said: My understanding is that many polls that have Obama out in front with a large lead are using the 2008 model of voter turnout. Many Republicans find that absurd, because they don't think that the Democrats are nearly as excited as they were in the last election, and they also think that Republicans are more energized. So they have a problem with how the data is extrapolated. |
It is actually worse than that ...
The best the Democrats have ever done was in 2008 where the had voter turnout (something like) 7% higher than Republicans; many of the polsters are assuming a Democrat turnout that is (something like) 10% to 15% higher than Republicans.
The polls will (most likely) turn out to be wrong, but it is difficult to say whether Mit Romney is in the lead or just not losing by as much as their polls indicate he is.
