| insomniac17 said: My understanding is that many polls that have Obama out in front with a large lead are using the 2008 model of voter turnout. Many Republicans find that absurd, because they don't think that the Democrats are nearly as excited as they were in the last election, and they also think that Republicans are more energized. So they have a problem with how the data is extrapolated. |
This here's the answer. There's always a disconnect between polls and the vote, and it's not just a matter of the margin of error. Just because somebody is willing to answer a simple question when phoned up doesn't mean they're willing to take time out of their day to cast a ballot.
Turnout is always an issue, and it tends to favour conservatives, but there's no easy way to measure how "energized" voting groups will be on election day. Pollsters have probably already factored in the typical conservative bias between intent and action, and the Republicans are grasping at straws.
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