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It's off to a rocky start sure, but I think 20m units is a worse case scenario. Provided it get's the boost it needs this holiday and it's library keeps expanding more and more people will be attracted to the vita.

With Strong First and 3rd party support, Good advertising and marketing And an eventual reduction in the price of memory cards and the core system I think it can do quite well and possibly get around the 50-60m mark.