Sony's back plan might be working.

[FunKrusher]

makingmusic476 said:

FunKrusher said:
I can name one digital download service that has 10million+ users XBOX LIVE. Now what percentage of those users are currently downloading movies shows, etc. on there? No clue.

But a more successful one? ON DEMAND COMCAST CABLE. If you know anyone who lives in a Comcast DIGITAL cable area (pretty much the only choice if you're in the Northeast United States). Ask them on avg. how many movies they download/rent from Comcast a month. Oh and they are available in HD also, already included in the cost of your bill. I'm willing to bet that their subscribers are waaaaaaaaaaaaaay over 10 million. So there ya go.

But with that being the next direction that M$ is taking they already have an install base of those users right there.

I honestly see this Blu-Ray arguement as for how Sony can win market share as grasping for straws.

There are too many variables, but realistically I don't see people jumping from DVD media to Bu-Ray media JUST BECAUSE THE RESOLUTION IS BETTER ON THEIR TVS. There has to be some sort of attractive advantage. And right now that's the most glaring.

From VHS to DVD was a HUGE leap because with DVDs it was a completely new and attractive format for multitudes of reasons including but not limited too:

1. Better image quality
2. Better storage capacity (not as clunky as tapes)
3. More options (menus, previews, no need to rewind, extra features, etc.)

Those three right there helped DVDs to quantam leap over VHS. Right now Blu-Ray doesn't appear to have that big of a jump technologically to fully replace DVDs. Especially with the price point of DVDs now in comparison to a Blu-Ray.

The difference with HD televisions from Stand Def. can be marked by the same difference from DVDS to VHS. They're more attractive, slim, better image quality, new interesting tech.

But people assuming that adopters of HD are going to just jump head first in I think may be in for a rude awakeing. It's like from cds to mini disk or even UMD. The formats are too close being that they are both "disc" based. And the only deciding factor between the two between the avg. less tech savy consumer is price point. Which DVD has and will continue to have throughout it's lifetime.

Whoever said Ps2 is the cheapest DVD player on the market is sadly mistaken. You can get a stand alone DVD player which in turn does more than a Ps2 for $20-30 USD. That's significantly cheaper than a $90-$100 Ps2.

I'm no big shot analyst or anything. But I have to say after the Dvd era, I do see things going the way of Digital Distribution. Much like the music industry. If you can download a whole HD movie in a manageable time frame. Not too mention multiple movies. And the price is right? Why go to the store and purchase a new format to replace those 100's of Dvd disc that you stock piled to replace them, just because they look better? When you can just now eliminate that usage of space? Think about it.

It's why digital cable has been so wildly successful and continue to do so.

In closing I just don't see Blu-Ray helping to turn Sony into the hub of the living room as it was last gen. The playing field has changed, and media as a whole is becoming a lot more "digital".

But only time will tell.

The image quality of Blu-Ray is a bigger step above DVD than DVD was above VHS, even including upscaling depending on the quality of the DVD.

Also, despite all of the advantages of DVD over VHS, people were still hesitant to adopt DVD, because they weren't sure of what to do with their VHS players and tapes. With Blu-Ray, however, this hurtle has been removed. It's much easier to transition into Blu-Ray, because all you have to do is buy the player. It will still play your DVDs, and it will make them look better as well.

Basically, there may be less reasons to adopt Blu-Ray compared to DVD, but it's also much easier to adopt Blu-Ray than it was to adopt DVD, so it evens out. And if you look at the sales ratios, the HDM market has been growing at a much faster rate than the DVD market was growing back in the late 90s, so apparently many people don't mind simply buying a new player for upscaling and HDM.

As for DD, I can't see that taking a hold until bandwidth increases drastically, and storage devices increase in size drastically. Once people can hold at least 100+ ~30gb 1080p films on a single device, and are able to redownload them quickly should said device fail, then maybe DD will begin taking over. And then there are the guys like me that simply prefer disc-based media. Yes, I do still buy CDs, as does my entire family. I have a few friends who pay for MP3 downloads, but most of the downloaders I know don't pay for a thing.

But you discounted everything I said with DD.  ON DEMAND cable shows are stored directly on your box.  I don't know the specs but you can have at least 5-10 shows saved with no problem.  It's just a point and a click.

Sure the resolution on Blu-Ray maybe better than DVDs, and sure the market as of now may be growing faster than Dvds were 5-10 years ago.  But that doesn't guarantee that that is going to be the next technological progression.

If we based this based on numbers (as anaylst do) sure your right.  But I'm looking beyond sales trends at trends in general.  If you look at format trends usually there is a MAJOR shake-up that causes change.

You may say that the clarit of DVDs wasn't that big of a difference over VHS. but you missed out on 3 other points of interest which I listed clearly

 

1. You didn't have to rewind DVDS - that's a big deal. almost a bigger deal than clarity as it's just now that everyone is Hi-DEF!!! crazy

2. Dvds came with added bonus', different languages, special features, you could skip scenes, bookmark scenes, some had different angles, rewind and fast forward options, etc. vs. VHS which you just put in and played.

 

You may discount those things.  But ask a number of people about their opinions of why DVDs were better than VHS and I'm wlling to bet those features I listed pop up more than clarity. I'm talking the everyday consumer not tech whores.

So even if the the jump in resolution is 100x's greater to the avg. consumer I honestly don't believe that warrants getting rid of their current DISC based media collection to upgrade to one with much better clarity.

 

It didn't work in the case of DATs vs. cassette tapes, mini disk vs. cds and so on.

Your agruement actually supports the STD vs HD television arguement. I believe that is a lot closer to the DVDs vs. VHS because the trends are similar in those areas.

Sorry I just don't think Blu-Ray is ever going to be the stand alone standard.  Maybe in another 5-10 years.  But I honestly don't see it.  You look at something like flash memory and mp3 players. Before kids were burning cds and things of that sort. Now a days, most kids have multiple portable flash drives and ipods or different variations of mp3s.  I honestly don't think the disc based media is ever going to go away.

But I seriously don't think Blu-Ray is ever going to be as huge as Dvds are now. Digitizing everything seems to be the way things are going.

I'm basing my assumptions just on various trends like the ones I've listed.

But all in all it's my two cents, and only time will tell.