If the PlayStation 4 launches and completely blows away the competition then it won't matter which launched first. The problem the PS3 had was being at minimum $100 more than the Xbox 360, which also launched a year before it, the Wii launch was right around the corner (hell it launched two days after the PS3 in North America) for $250 and the system didn't have a blockbuster system selling title on day one or in the launch window.
The PS3 had Resistance...and a terrible Gundam game...and a terrible Genji game...and terrible everything else. Oblivion was delayed, Devil May Cry 4 was delayed, Lair was delayed (but ultimately was one of the worst games this gen anyways...)
Attractable price, must have day one game content (Uncharted 4, Gran Turismo 6, Final Fantasy Versus XIII [Yes I've given up on it releasing this gen], a Metal Gear Solid [Main Story installment], Killzone 4, etc.), and a kick ass advertising campaign can do wonders.
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