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I see Nintendo in a strong position myself. In Japan they should easily dominate the market with DQ and MH already on board together with their own killer franchises and with a year head start at a good price point - that's a situation Sony can't really hope to recover from (and MS naturally has no chances anyway).

With that as their backbone and ofcourse the mass appeal of their own world wide franchises Nintendo sits in a very comfortable spot.
In NA Nintendo should be able to take on MS pretty well (and might finally get GTA or Elder Scrolls or some other big western franchises as a result), while I see europe+rest as not too decided - Sony could come out at top here, but if so then probably only by a small margin.