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man-bear-pig said:
HappySqurriel said:
Honestly, I'm more interested in what the sales will be like after the rabid Apple fans buy their phones ...

While my personal experience is not representative, I know very few average people who are looking to upgrade their iPhone 4 or 4S for an iPhone 5; and it is these kind of people who have bought the vast majority of iPhones. If 1/3 of the people who would have previously upgraded for the sake of upgrading decide to stick with their current phone it may not show up in day one sales but it would show up.


Well, the iPhone 5 is projected to sell over 58 million units by the end of the year, so not only rabid apple fans will be getting one I can assure you

Also, my friend has a 4s and when he wasn't planning on upgrading, but when he saw my iPhone 5 he said that be was going to get one. Word of mouth about the iPhone 5 will be INSANELY high

Projecting sales is counting you chickens before they've hatched ...

I don't doubt there will be a ton of upgrades, but a modest reduction in people upgrading could have a noticeable impact on sales. Hypothetically speaking, if 45 million people bought an iPhone 5 rather than 58 million it would still be a massively popular phone but its sales would disapoint.