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Honestly, I'm more interested in what the sales will be like after the rabid Apple fans buy their phones ...

While my personal experience is not representative, I know very few average people who are looking to upgrade their iPhone 4 or 4S for an iPhone 5; and it is these kind of people who have bought the vast majority of iPhones. If 1/3 of the people who would have previously upgraded for the sake of upgrading decide to stick with their current phone it may not show up in day one sales but it would show up.