I can name one digital download service that has 10million+ users XBOX LIVE. Now what percentage of those users are currently downloading movies shows, etc. on there? No clue.
But a more successful one? ON DEMAND COMCAST CABLE. If you know anyone who lives in a Comcast DIGITAL cable area (pretty much the only choice if you're in the Northeast United States). Ask them on avg. how many movies they download/rent from Comcast a month. Oh and they are available in HD also, already included in the cost of your bill. I'm willing to bet that their subscribers are waaaaaaaaaaaaaay over 10 million. So there ya go.
But with that being the next direction that M$ is taking they already have an install base of those users right there.
I honestly see this Blu-Ray arguement as for how Sony can win market share as grasping for straws.
There are too many variables, but realistically I don't see people jumping from DVD media to Bu-Ray media JUST BECAUSE THE RESOLUTION IS BETTER ON THEIR TVS. There has to be some sort of attractive advantage. And right now that's the most glaring.
From VHS to DVD was a HUGE leap because with DVDs it was a completely new and attractive format for multitudes of reasons including but not limited too:
1. Better image quality
2. Better storage capacity (not as clunky as tapes)
3. More options (menus, previews, no need to rewind, extra features, etc.)
Those three right there helped DVDs to quantam leap over VHS. Right now Blu-Ray doesn't appear to have that big of a jump technologically to fully replace DVDs. Especially with the price point of DVDs now in comparison to a Blu-Ray.
The difference with HD televisions from Stand Def. can be marked by the same difference from DVDS to VHS. They're more attractive, slim, better image quality, new interesting tech.
But people assuming that adopters of HD are going to just jump head first in I think may be in for a rude awakeing. It's like from cds to mini disk or even UMD. The formats are too close being that they are both "disc" based. And the only deciding factor between the two between the avg. less tech savy consumer is price point. Which DVD has and will continue to have throughout it's lifetime.
Whoever said Ps2 is the cheapest DVD player on the market is sadly mistaken. You can get a stand alone DVD player which in turn does more than a Ps2 for $20-30 USD. That's significantly cheaper than a $90-$100 Ps2.
I'm no big shot analyst or anything. But I have to say after the Dvd era, I do see things going the way of Digital Distribution. Much like the music industry. If you can download a whole HD movie in a manageable time frame. Not too mention multiple movies. And the price is right? Why go to the store and purchase a new format to replace those 100's of Dvd disc that you stock piled to replace them, just because they look better? When you can just now eliminate that usage of space? Think about it.
It's why digital cable has been so wildly successful and continue to do so.
In closing I just don't see Blu-Ray helping to turn Sony into the hub of the living room as it was last gen. The playing field has changed, and media as a whole is becoming a lot more "digital".
But only time will tell.
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