Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

[HappySqurriel]

Just an observation of the generations Nintendo has been in competition with Sony ...

With the Playstation, Sony launched much earlier than than Nintendo and took advantage of third party dissatisfaction with Nintendo and Sega to build a strong library and dominate the generation.

With the PS2, Sony launched much earlier than Nintendo and took advantage of the third party publisher relationships built with the Playstation to build a strong library and dominate the generation.

With the PSP, Sony launched at roughly the same time as Nintendo. Nintendo focused on a new user interface element (touch screen) that few saw as being an important, while Sony produced a more powerful system. Sony leveraged their strong third party relationships, and Nintendo leveraged their strong first party development, and Nintendo "won" the generation while Sony was one of the most successful "runner up" consoles.

With the PS3, Sony and Nintendo launched at roughly the same time. Nintendo focused on a new user interface device which was seen as revolutionary, while Sony produced a more powerful system. Sony leveraged their strong third party relationships and benefited from multiplatform development with the XBox 360 and PC, and Nintendo leveraged their strong first party development. Nintendo "won" the generation but their initial amazing sales lost steam allowing Sony to be one of the most successful "runner up" consoles.

With the 3DS Nintendo launched much earlier than Sony did and focused on a new user interface element that few saw as being important. Sony focused on processing power but was unable to get an upper hand in third party published games due to a weaker relationship with publishers (due to more modest sales of PS3 and PSP software compared to PS2 software). While the generation has yet to be decided, Nintendo has a massive lead and is selling very well while the PS-Vita is struggling.



Heading into the next generation Nintendo will be launching first, is focusing on a new user interface element that few see as being important, still has strong first party development, and Sony will likely have a weaker relationship with third party publishers due to poor performance of the PS-Vita. The Wii U hasn't launched yet so we don't know how it will sell, and we don't know whether Sony will focus on processing power again, but the current set-up for the generation doesn't seem to benefit Sony.

The big wildcard (in my opinion) is Microsoft ...

The strategy Microsoft chooses could easily help or hurt either Sony or Nintendo, and they may or may not actively try to do either.